Kinkikali

The Four Fems

No matter what your viewpoint is of the political process, the November 2010 Mid-term elections should be a hoot and a holler, with hopefully a minimum of gunfire.  Here in NH, there are plenty of races worth watching.

And I think NH will soon have an all female delegation…

Below are my predictions, with the usual mushy commentary…

House 1:  I give Carol-Shea another term.  Her original campaign was the original tea-party type–fired up about Hurricane Katrina and party underdog.  She has made no big whoops.  And she has made getting veterans local health care her flagship cause.  Any Republican/Conservative picking a fight with her will have to put up or shut up on supporting our dear suffering veterans.

House 2:  With an open seat this will be like  playing hockey and basketball on the same field. Katrina Swett will put up a feisty and smart campaign.  She will face Jennifer Horn who will beat Charlie Bass.  Not that she strays beyond the talking points, but because she is newer and fresh.  Charlie has had too much time in congress to get another chance.  Katrina v. Jennifer ought to full of fury and foam.  Jennifer will win by having never set foot in DC.

Senior Senator: I know Jeanne Shaheen is not up for re-election, but she will have a split delegation—all filled with strong willed women.  Tragically will alone does not bring back Happy Times.  I hope she can bring unity because unity comes in awful handy in awful times.

Junior Senator: Paul Hodes will be the sacrificial goat for the sins of Obama.  Meanwhile Kelly Ayotte will beat her male opponents after a bruising, hurting, and wearing race. But she will be the “establishment” pick with an anti-establishment mandate.  She will have the courage to blow the whistle on her fellow Republicans/Conservatives when they engage or had engaged in the same behavior they complain about.  She will resign within a year saying (about Congress) “They no longer do the people’s business, but business’s business…and they have lobbyists for that”

November Revolution

Since 2001, national politics has become progressively more contentious and complex.  The coming mid-term elections are already described in “line in the sand” terms.  Unfortunately there is no national consensus—just groups of hell for leather and bunker mentality interests.  Trust exists only within “the tribe”.

And there is zero patience.  So the Democrats get the proverbial boot.  Republicans take over, but then what?  Will they stand by their promises or will hopes be burst like plenty of recent bubbles.

Voters will stew knowing nothing has changed in the positive direction.  There are vague alternatives–but again can bravado translate to practical solutions.  Our troubles, especially financial, are too deep and widespread.  It has taken decades to degrade the low and middle class.  They are stripped of all but defiance and anger.

This leads to long term questions about democracy competency. 

Unfortunately institutions in America are pretty well sullied and younger generations are none to pleased with current and especially future state of affairs.  There are some ok folks running for office, but the prospects don’t look good.  Many candidates are so virulently “anti-government” that one wonders why they are running for something they hate.

Since severe financial disruptions has left so much in the air, now would be the time to deep think how to re-arrange the things we once considered permanent, before they are thrust upon us by those who find elections no longer enough to sustain democracy.